A bullish growth for renewables in the Middle East?

Optimism about industry growth in the energy sector, as well as about energy transition prospects, is stronger in the Middle East and North Africa than anywhere else in the world, according to DNV’s Energy Insights 2025 Report

According to the report, based on an annual survey of more than 1,100 senior professionals, 84% of respondents in the Middle East and Africa express optimism about energy industry growth prospects compared to 68% globally, and this figure has risen sharply from 69% last year. The report highlights that the energy sector is booming in the region, as many countries look to develop both their renewable and fossil fuel resources, noting that it has become the fastest-growing renewables market outside China, mainly thanks to solar sector growth. Installed solar capacity is forecast to rise to 100GW of installed capacity by 2030, up from just 23GW today, with Saudi Arabia looking to generate half of its domestic electricity from renewables by 2030, including 40GW of solar PV – six times the current capacity. Early this year Masdar announced a 5.2GW solar plant combined with a 19GWh battery storage facility, making it the largest combined solar battery energy storage system (BESS)  in the world.

At the same time, the region is continuing to develop its fossil fuels, particularly natural gas, DNV notes. Iran, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia are in the world’s top ten natural gas producers, while other countries are also growing production.  The combination of gas and solar is a winning one, with solar offering a cheaper and cleaner way to meet rising domestic electricity demand, while natural gas can be profitably exported.

Middle East and Africa respondents are most optimistic about reaching revenue and profit targets in the year ahead, at 73% and 71% respectively, compared with 63%/54% in North America, 58%/48% in Europe, 55%/52% Asia Pacific and 63%/54% Latin America.

Uncertain political environment

The report highlights the uncertain policy and geopolitical environment, particular in the US, with political risk seen as the leading constraint to growth. Recent geopolitical shifts have caused considerable uncertainly, with a lot of capital being diverted from renewables into oil and gas, and emerging technologies such as green hydrogen CCS, green steel and synthetic fuels being negatively impacted.

Reflecting this uncertainty, several oil and gas companies, (bp for example), have scaled back renewables commitments over the past year and increased their investment in fossil fuels. 53% of oil and gas sector respondents say they will prioritise fossil fuels over renewables over the next five years — up from 46% a year ago, while 24% of respondents in the power sector are looking to prioritise fossil fuels over renewables over the next five years, more than double the figure (11%) of a year ago. While optimism in the oil and gas sector has held steady over the past two years, standing at 66% in 2025, most oil and gas respondents (60%) say that political issues such as elections, policy uncertainty and regime change are a major threat to success in the year ahead.

Policy reversals and uncertainty are expected to hold back the energy transition in some sectors and regions, with only 55% of energy industry professionals now believing the energy transition is accelerating, sharply down from 79% two years ago. A key factor noted is the shift in investor sentiment. However, many organisations continue to invest in sustainable energy, taking a medium to long-term view.

Certain parts of the world are positive about the  pace of the energy transition, notably the Middle East and Africa region, where 77% say the pace of the energy transition is accelerating,  and Asia Pacific, where the figure is 68%. In contrast, only 47% in North America and 48% in Europe think the pace is accelerating.

"Despite global economic and political uncertainty, most of the energy industry maintains a general optimism, supported by megatrends such as electrification and energy demand," says the report. "Energy security and affordability have become priorities and are influencing both oil and gas expansion and the acceleration toward renewables. Sentiment varies from region to region, with the Middle East and Africa the most optimistic, and North America the least."