Emissions are set to almost halve by 2050. (Image source: DNV)

DNV has released its 'Energy Transition Outlook', which notes that 2024 will go down as the year of peak energy emissions

Energy-related emissions are at the cusp of a prolonged period of decline for the first time since the industrial revolution. Emissions are set to almost halve by 2050, but this is a long way short of requirements of the Paris Agreement. The Outlook forecasts the planet will warm by 2.2 °C by end of the century.

The peaking of emissions is largely due to plunging costs of solar and batteries which are accelerating the exit of coal from the energy mix and stunting the growth of oil. Annual solar installations increased 80% last year as it beat coal on cost in many regions. Cheaper batteries, which dropped 14% in cost last year, are also making the 24-hour delivery of solar power and electric vehicles more affordable. The uptake of oil was limited as electrical vehicles sales grew by 50%. In China, where both of these trends were especially pronounced, peak gasoline is now in the past.

China is dominating much of the global action on decarbonisation at present, particularly in the production and export of clean technology. It accounted for 58% of global solar installations and 63% of new electrical vehicle purchases last year. And whilst it remains the world’s largest consumer of coal and emitter of CO2, its dependence on fossil fuels is set to fall rapidly as it continues to install solar and wind. China is the dominating exporter of green technologies although international tariffs are making their goods more expensive in some territories.

“Solar PV and batteries are driving the energy transition, growing even faster than we previously forecasted,” said Remi Eriksen, group president and CEO of DNV. “Emissions peaking is a milestone for humanity. But we must now focus on how quickly emissions decline and use the available tools to accelerate the energy transition. Worryingly, our forecasted decline is very far from the trajectory required to meet the Paris Agreement targets. In particular, the hard-to-electrify sectors need a renewed policy push.”

Striking shifts in energy mix

The success of solar and batteries is not replicated in the hard-to-abate sectors, where essential technologies are scaling slowly. DNV has revised the long-term forecast for hydrogen and its derivatives down by 20% (from 5% to 4% of final energy demand in 2050) since last year. And although DNV has revised up its carbon capture and storage forecast, only 2% of global emissions will be captured by CCS in 2040 and 6% in 2050. A global carbon price would accelerate the uptake of these technologies.

Wind remains an important driver of the energy transition, contributing to 28% of electricity generation by 2050. In the same timeframe, offshore wind will experience 12% annual growth rate although the current headwinds impacting the industry are weighing on growth.

Despite these challenges, the peaking of emissions is a sign that the energy transition is progressing. The energy mix is moving from a roughly 80/20 mix in favour of fossil fuels today, to one which is split equally between fossil and non-fossil fuels by 2050. In the same timeframe, electricity use will double, which is also at the driver of energy demand only increasing 10%.

“There is a growing mismatch between short term geopolitical and economic priorities versus the need to accelerate the energy transition. There is a compelling green dividend on offer which should give policymakers the courage to not only double down on renewable technologies, but to tackle the expensive and difficult hard-to-electrify sectors with firm resolve,” added Eriksen

The Outlook also examines the impact of artificial intelligence on the energy transition. AI will have a profound impact on many aspects of the energy system, particularly for the transmission and distribution of power. And although data points are currently sparse, DNV does not forecast that the energy footprint of AI will alter the overall direction of the transition. It will account for 2% of electricity demand by 2050.

*CO2 emissions from the combustion of coal, oil and gas

KROHNE has been a member of the Alliance for Industry Decarbonisation since 2023. (Image source: Canva)

The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) has released its latest white paper on green hydrogen, produced in collaboration with key industry stakeholders such as KROHNE.

The document highlights the importance of measurement and standards in successfully integrating green hydrogen as a sustainable fuel source.

The white paper outlines several key areas:

Measurement and Standards: The report stresses that robust measurement and standardisation are crucial for ensuring the reliability and efficiency of green hydrogen production and usage. Accurate metrics are necessary for optimising processes and building trust among stakeholders.

Industry Collaboration: Input from companies like KROHNE underscores the need for collaboration across industries to establish a comprehensive framework for green hydrogen, addressing the unique challenges each sector faces in adopting this fuel source.

Decarbonisation Goals: Green hydrogen is poised to play a pivotal role in the global energy transition, particularly in sectors that are harder to decarbonise. The white paper details strategies for overcoming technological and policy barriers to widespread adoption, discussed during New York Climate Week in September 2024.

Future Outlook: IRENA’s white paper offers a roadmap for scaling up green hydrogen production and integrating it into existing energy systems. It calls for immediate action to unlock the potential of this sustainable fuel.

KROHNE, a member of the Alliance for Industry Decarbonisation since 2023, continues to support global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The Alliance, facilitated by IRENA, emphasises the importance of reliable measurement and standards in achieving decarbonisation goals. KROHNE’s expertise in measurement technology positions it as a vital contributor to these efforts.

Through strategic partnerships and research initiatives, KROHNE aims to support the transition toward net-zero emissions by driving innovation in green hydrogen solutions.

The platform supports AI-driven analytics, delivering real-time data. (Image source: X2M)

Dicode Technologies (Dicode) has announced a strategic partnership with Australian Internet of Things (IoT) provider X2M Connect Limited (X2M) at WETEX, with plans to introduce X2M’s advanced utility platform to the Middle East, starting in the UAE.

 The “pay as you go” model offers gas companies a cost-effective way to modernise their infrastructure using IoT technology with zero upfront capital expenditure (Capex).

The partnership aims to transform the UAE's gas sector by offering a complete end-to-end solution, designed to help companies shift from a Capex to an operational expenditure (Opex) model.

Increasing safety

The service is delivered through a “Platform as a Service (PaaS)” model and includes smart gas meters, LoRaWAN communications powered by Digital DEWA’s InfraX, and X2M’s patented IoT software solution.

The X2M software provides key benefits, such as being device-agnostic, allowing compatibility with a variety of smart meters and sensors. It supports multiple utilities, including gas, water, and electricity, facilitating broader integration and operational efficiency.

With compatibility across various communication protocols, such as Zigbee, WISUN, Modbus, LoRaWAN, NBIoT, and LTE, the platform ensures seamless connectivity. It also includes leak detection features, improving safety and reliability by identifying and preventing leaks.

The software offers flexible deployment options, either on the edge, on-premises, or in the cloud, making it adaptable to different business needs. It can easily integrate with any Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) system for smooth operational transitions.

Additionally, the platform supports AI-driven analytics, delivering real-time data to help gas companies make smarter, more informed decisions.

X2M CEO and MD Mohan Jesudason, said, “We like the digitisation landscape in the Middle East with the UAE being a very logical entry point. X2M has built a strong working partnership with Dicode over a period of time. We are now looking forward to taking our proprietary utility solutions into this market in collaboration with the Dicode team.”

Dicode co-founder and CEO, Satish Chandran, said, “In line with Dicode’s vision of helping Gas Utilities migrate to smart infrastructure, we are proud to enter into partnership with X2M. X2M’s advanced software is a pivotal piece of our PaaS offering. The versatility of X2M software and its on-ground experience will help us rapidly scale the UAE market.”

Global hydrogen demand reached 97Mt in 2023, an increase of 2.5% compared to 2022. (Image source: Canva)

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), while investment and projects in low-emissions hydrogen are increasing, policies to stimulate demand in key sectors are required to accelerate deployment

These are the findings published in the organisation’s Global Hydrogen Review 2024, an annual publication that tracks production and demand worldwide in a bid to inform energy stakeholders on the status and future prospects of low-emissions hydrogen.

The research shows that a wave of new projects indicates the growing momentum around low-emissions hydrogen despite challenges such as regulatory uncertainties, persistent cost pressures, and a lack of incentives to accelerate demand from potential consumers. In the last 12 months, the number of projects that have reached final investment decision has doubled – this would increase today’s global production of low-emissions hydrogen fivefold by 2030. The total electrolyser capacity has reached final investment decision now stands at 20GW globally.

However, the IEA reports hesitancy from developers due to a lack of clarity on government support before making investments. As a result, most potential projects are still in planning or early-stage development, and some larger projects face delays or cancellations.

“The growth in new projects suggests strong investor interest in developing low-emissions hydrogen production, which could play a critical role in reducing emissions from industrial sectors such as steel, refining and chemicals,” remarked IEA executive director Fatih Birol. “But for these projects to be a success, low-emissions hydrogen producers need buyers. Policymakers and developers must look carefully at the tools for supporting demand creation while also reducing costs and ensuring clear regulations are in place that will support further investment in the sector.”

Hydrogen demand against production

Further key findings from the report include a notable gap between government goals for production and demand. According to the research, production targets set by governments add up to as much as 43mn tonnes per year by 2030, but demand targets only total 11mn tonnes by 2030. While some government policies are already in place to stimulate demand, the progress made in the hydrogen sector so far is not sufficient to meet climate goals.

Moreover, as a nascent sector, low-emissions hydrogen still faces technology and production cost pressures, with electrolysers in particular slipping back on some of their past progress due to higher prices and tight supply chains. A continuation of cost reductions relies on technology development, but also optimising deployment processes and moving to mass manufacturing to achieve economies of scale.
Cost reductions will benefit all projects, but the impact on the competitiveness of individual projects will vary. Industrial hubs – where low-emissions hydrogen could replace the existing large demand for hydrogen that is currently met by production from unabated fossil fuels – remain an important untapped opportunity by governments to stimulate demand, according to the IEA.

Hydrogen potential in emerging markets

Regarding emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs), the report notes that such regions (particularly Africa and Latin America) hold significant potential for low-cost, low-emissions hydrogen production.

To unlock this potential, the IEA advises, governments of advanced economies and multilateral development banks should look to provide targeted support such as grants and concessional financing in order to address key challenges that are inhibiting project developers in these countries – most notably, around financing. Developing these projects, the research reports, can help cover domestic needs, reduce import dependencies and potentially enable the export of hydrogen or hydrogen-based products.

The IEA is not the only organisation that has noted the significant opportunities that hydrogen can offer Africa. Click here to discover why Synergy Consulting sees the emerging hydrogen economy as a key element in the sustainable future of southern Africa.