Energy

Accelerating the energy transition: energy basins to become mainstream

Premium energy basins hold the potential for upstream players to decarbonise while continuing to meet oil and gas demand. (Image source: Rystad Energy)

Middle Eastern basins will play a pivotal role in meeting global energy demand while decarbonising, according to new research from Rystad Energy

Despite the accelerating energy transition, oil and gas will remain central to the global energy mix for the foreseeable future given the growth in energy demand. Rystad Energy estimates that by 2030, more than 75% of total demand will be met by fossil fuels, with emissions climbing as a result. This underscores the continuing importance of hydrocarbons, while also highlighting the need for oil and gas companies to build sustainable portfolios and reduce their Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions to meet medium and long-term targets. As oil companies work to transform into integrated energy players and decarbonise their operations, it is crucial not only to achieve transition goals but also to minimise the carbon footprint of upstream activities, with the extraction of these resources accounting for more than 800mn tonnes of CO₂e every year.

Premium energy basins (PEB) – a term coined by Rystad Energy – are particularly valuable because they are rich in hydrocarbon reserves and offer the potential for integrating low-carbon energy sources. As such, they provide an ideal platform for addressing emission challenges by combining substantial hydrocarbon volumes with opportunities for incorporating low-carbon solutions to reduce overall emissions.

“A select few basins hold the potential for upstream players to decarbonise while continuing to meet oil and gas demand. However, the race to decarbonise hinges on three crucial factors: accelerating investment, overcoming geographical challenges and modifying existing infrastructure. These changes are essential for unlocking the full potential of these basins and for upstream players to achieve their decarbonisation targets,” said Palzor Shenga, vice president, Upstream Research at Rystad Energy.

The Central Arabian and Rub Al Khali basins stand out as carbon-efficient, resource-rich basins with significant potential, according to Rystad. These Middle Eastern basins are at the forefront of PEBs and play a pivotal role in global conventional discovered volumes, especially as global discoveries decline and exploration activity peaks. Separately, these basins also score highly in terms of renewable potential, with both offering more than 6.2 gigawatts (GW) combined of installed and upcoming solar capacity.

Since 2015, these basins have contributed approximately 40bn bbl of oil equivalent (boe) in newly discovered volumes, evenly divided between liquids and gas. Egypt’s Nile Delta, driven by Eni’s giant Zohr gas discovery in the Mediterranean Sea, ranks third with about 5bn boe discovered during this period, followed by the US Gulf Deepwater (3.7bn boe) and the Central Asian Amu-Darya (3.6bn boe) basins.

With a combined capital expenditure of US$638bn, the Rub Al Khali, US Gulf Deepwater and Central Arabian basins have seen the highest greenfield investments since 2000. Due to the vast volumes discovered, the unit cost of development in the two Middle Eastern basins has been under US$2 per boe. In contrast, the smaller average resource size in the exclusively offshore US Gulf Deepwater Basin has driven development costs to over US$9 per boe, with only the Viking Graben Basin (US$11 per boe) in Northwest Europe having a higher development cost. Significant investments have also been made in resource development in Brazil’s Santos Basin (US$153bn) and Australia’s North Carnarvon Basin (US$140bn).

Several PEBs offer significant potential for carbon storage, particularly in late-life or abandoned oil and gas fields, which are suitable for enhanced oil recovery or permanent storage. These basins are increasingly being utilised for carbon capture and storage due to their geological properties.

Energy and sustainability concerns in the Middle East

To contain the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and make global gas market equilibrium resilient, it is critical to enhance investment in natural gas supply. (Image source: Adobe Stock)

A potential global gas supply shortfall along with the likelihood of failing to meet sustainability goals are highlighted in a new report from the International Gas Union, Snam and Rystad Energy, as energy demand continues to rise

The 2024 Global Gas Report (GGR) released at the ONS Conference, reveals that global gas markets are in fragile equilibrium, with supply growth limited while demand is expected to accelerate to 2.1% by the end of 2024.

Asia continues to be the key engine of the demand growth, while North America and the Middle East are in the lead on the exports.

Should gas demand continue to grow as in the last four years, without additional production development, a 22% global supply shortfall is expected by 2030 the report says, underscoring the urgent need to scale up investments.

Energy demand has continued to rise in developed and developing regions, while coal burning increased more than ever in 2023, remaining the biggest source of global energy emissions. If current energy demand and supply trends persist, 2030 targets outlined in policy driven decarbonisation scenarios will most likely be missed. Despite efforts to enhance efficiency and ongoing industrial decline, Europe has experienced energy demand growth. In North America, energy demand has surpassed 2019 levels and continues to climb, fuelled by the transport sector and AI data centres. Asia's demand is also surging, particularly in the industrial sectors of India and China. Meanwhile, Africa's energy demand is growing faster than in most regions, driven by urban development, though it still falls short of the levels required for full energy access.

Enhanced investment in natural gas needed

To contain the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and to make global gas market equilibrium resilient, it is critical to both enhance investment in natural gas supply and scale up biomethane, carbon capture and storage (CCS), and low-carbon hydrogen technologies, the report says. Natural gas today provides an immediate opportunity to cut emissions from coal by 50% and from oil by 30% through cost-effective switching. Biomethane is a direct substitution for natural gas. Today, its scale is significantly below potential at roughly 1% of the natural gas market, and it is primarily produced in North America and Europe. However, new centres of production are emerging in hubs like China and India. CO2 capture capacity, a crucial technology for a successful energy transition, is also gaining momentum, but needs to be scaled up, as for biomethane and low-carbon hydrogen. These technologies will play a critical role in decarbonising energy supply (especially in hard-to-abate sectors) and ensuring its resilience. Scaling them is essential, requiring urgent investment and enabling policies to start building the growing volumes of project proposals.

IGU president, Mme Li Yalan, commented, “Energy and gas demand continue to grow, driven by improving living standards in the developing world, new demand trends, and ongoing growth in developed regions. We must look for a realistic way to balance these trends with long-term sustainability goals, such as building a diversified energy system, and comprehensive approaches to tackle climate change. Embracing innovative solutions and flexible policies will be key to navigate this highly uncertain energy landscape.”

Snam CEO, Stefano Venier, said, “The energy transition represents a unique challenge for mankind. A journey that will not be linear, marked by great aspirations and many hurdles, from geopolitical tensions to technology disruptions and unforeseeable global economy developments. In this continuously evolving transformation, natural gas and related infrastructure represents a critical element of sustainable resiliency for the global energy system, while new green and low carbon molecules will play an essential role to achieve a just and technologically neutral transition.”

Rystad Energy CEO, Jarand Rystad, added, “Natural gas, now 30% of the fossil fuel mix, is cheaper and cleaner than oil and coal, with emissions significantly lower than both. As global LNG access expands, natural gas is on track to surpass coal by 2030 and oil by 2050.”

DUBAL installs solar panels atop its aluminium subsidiary

Environmentally, the annual generation of 1.1 GWh of clean energy could power a small town for several days to a week. (Image source: Canva)

DUBAL Extrusion Investment has completed the rooftop solar power generation project (phase I) at OSE Industries, a local aluminium extrusion company owned by DEI.

The rooftop solar power project, implemented by Emirates Electrical Engineering LLC, became operational at the beginning of July and is situated on the rooftops of buildings 1 and 2 of the OSE plant.

With a rated capacity of 633 kilowatts peak (kWp), the system is anticipated to generate 1.1 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of clean electricity annually, potentially covering up to 12% of OSE Industries’ annual electricity needs. Environmentally, the annual generation of 1.1 GWh of clean energy could power a small town for several days to a week, reducing carbon emissions by 440,000 kg CO2e and promoting sustainable practices.

The project was carried out under a Solar Lease Agreement, removing upfront costs and providing a hassle-free approach to operation, maintenance, and affordable energy rates.

The supplier is responsible for monitoring the system’s performance, maintaining its cleanliness, and ensuring the availability of spare components. Preliminary data for July 2024 shows that the solar system generated 109.5 megawatt-hours (MWh) of electricity, meeting 12% of the monthly demand and contributing to a reduction of 43,800 kg CO2e in carbon emissions.

Phase II of the project, which will extend to the remaining buildings and service areas, is planned for commissioning in 2025. This project reflects DEI’s dedication to advancing the UAE’s sustainability goals, including the DEWA SHAMS Dubai Initiative, Dubai Clean Energy Strategy 2050, and UAE Net Zero 2050.

Empower looks to open new cooling plant in Dubai

Ahmad Bin Shafar, CEO of Empower. (Image source: Empower)

Emirates Central Cooling Systems Corporation PJSC (Empower) has secured a contract to design its second district cooling plant in Jumeirah Village.

The company has also revealed that construction of this new facility is set to commence in the first quarter of 2025.

The Jumeirah Village initiative stands as one of Empower’s most significant district cooling projects, with plans to construct six advanced plants to support the growing community with a combined cooling capacity of 256,000 tons.

This project spans two main areas: Jumeirah Village Circle (JVC), which covers 560 hectares, and Jumeirah Village Triangle (JVT), encompassing 242 hectares. The forthcoming plant, the second in the area, will augment the existing world’s first unmanned district cooling facility, currently serving around 114 buildings with a capacity of 49,000 refrigeration tons (RT).

The new plant will be equipped with state-of-the-art cooling technologies aimed at maximising energy efficiency and minimising water usage. With an expected capacity of approximately 37,000 RT, it will cater to a wide range of properties, including residential buildings, commercial centres, hotels, and other facilities within the Jumeirah Village development.

His Excellency Ahmad Bin Shafar, CEO of Empower, said, “Jumeirah Village is witnessing a surge in investor interest in developing multi-use buildings. The awarding of this new contract aligns with our strategic plans to address the growing demand for sustainable district cooling services. Empower is well-positioned to meet the future needs of the Jumeirah Village community."

He further stated that the company continues to steadily implement its expansion plans to provide its services to various major, multi-use projects across different areas of Dubai, ensuring its leadership in the district cooling industry and delivering high-quality, environmentally friendly services to its clients.

Report highlights need for better carbon storage technology

Eve Pope, Technology Analyst at IDTechEx, explains how carbon capture technologies can be made more efficient. Read on:

Carbon capture technologies capable of removing CO₂ from industrial emissions have been around for over 50 years, but widescale deployment of CCUS (carbon capture, utilisation, and storage) has been too slow for global net-zero ambitions. While governments are beginning to implement carbon pricing mechanisms or tax credits to motivate permanent storage of CO2 deep underground, a profitable business model exists beyond CO₂ sequestration via emerging CO₂ utilisation applications. According to the new IDTechEx research report, “Carbon Dioxide Utilisation 2025-2045: Technologies, Market Forecasts, and Players”, sales from CO₂ utilisation will directly generate US$240bn in revenue in 2045.

Carbon dioxide utilisation technologies recycle captured CO₂. The new carbon-containing products can be sold to generate financial benefits while offering a reduction in carbon footprint. The leading fate of captured carbon dioxide today is enhanced oil recovery - a method of reversing productivity decline in depleted oil fields. However, there are many emerging areas of CO₂ recycling, including CO₂-derived concrete, CO₂-derived fuels (methane, methanol, kerosene, diesel, and gasoline), CO₂-derived chemicals, and CO₂ yield boosting applications (crop greenhouses, algae, and proteins).

Profitable chemicals

Profitable production of CO₂-derived polymers has been around for decades. Asahi Kasei pioneered production of polycarbonate from waste CO₂ in 2002. The total annual production capacity of polycarbonate resin using CO2 utilisation technology has now reached about 1 million tonnes. Other essential plastics, such as polyethylene and PET, are starting to be made from CO2 via thermochemical and biological conversion routes, with LanzaTech leading microbial innovation in this space. Drop-in chemicals such as CO₂-derived ethanol and aromatics are also being commercialised.

While potentially all carbon-containing chemicals could utilise carbon dioxide in production, those requiring non-reductive pathways are the most promising due to a smaller energy demand and lack of dependency on low-carbon hydrogen production. The new IDTechEx report “Carbon Dioxide Utilisation 2025-2045: Technologies, Market Forecasts, and Players” explores synthesis routes for chemical companies to use waste CO2 as a green feedstock, displacing petrochemical products.

Decarbonising the aviation and shipping sectors

To date, alternative fuels have not achieved price parity with fossil fuels, inhibiting market uptake. However, increased market penetration of CO₂-derived fuels is expected to come from regulations already being put in place, such as fuel-blend mandates for long-haul transportation. As green hydrogen electrolyzer capacity scales up worldwide, production of e-fuels from carbon dioxide using power-to-x technology will also increase. These fuels are expected to play a role in decarbonising shipping and aviation as full electrification of the aviation and maritime sectors is currently unfeasible.

Several CO₂-derived fuels are already being commercially produced with many more commercial facilities expected over the next decade. The start of 2024 saw Mitsui and Celanese’s joint venture Fairway Methanol become operational, joining plants from Carbon Recycling International in producing over 100,000 tonnes per year of methanol made from captured CO₂. Other hydrocarbon fuels such as kerosene, diesel, and gasoline, which can be made via methanol or syngas intermediates, are also being ramped up. For example, Infinium’s Corpus Facility opened its doors this year, expected to produce thousands of tonnes per annum of CO2-derived e-fuels.

A net-negative future

The new IDTechEx report “Carbon Dioxide Utilisation 2025-2045: Technologies, Market Forecasts, and Players”, covers how CO₂ utilisation can lower the carbon footprint of ready-mixed concrete, precast concrete, and carbonate aggregates/supplementary cementitious materials through CO2 mineralisation reactions. Players already utilising over 10,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide each year in carbonates include O.C.O Technology and Greenore.

When CO₂ is permanently stored in concrete, performance is improved, and less cement is needed. Growth of CO₂-derived building materials will be driven by new certifications, superior materials performance, and the ability to achieve price parity through waste disposal fees and the sale of carbon credits.