Aviation will not decarbonise at the pace required unless Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) projects can reach final investment decision (FID) far more rapidly, industry leaders warned during a recent Sustainable Aviation Futures webinar, hosted in partnership with technology company Johnson Matthey.
The session brought together voices from across the value chain: technology provider Johnson Matthey, airline group IAG, energy major Repsol, lender Santander, and insurer AXA.
The webinar host noted that while around 50 SAF plants are operational globally and roughly 40 more have secured financing, over 150 projects remain stuck in planning, with at least 50 abandoned or paused in recent years. “SAF is essential to decarbonise aviation, but getting projects from paper to FID is by no means guaranteed,” she said.
Defining FID readiness
For Paul Ticehurst of Johnson Matthey, being “FID ready” means a project is “fully defined” with clear capital and operating costs, timelines, production volumes, revenues and, crucially, a deep understanding of its risk portfolio. That includes off‑taker risk, feedstock risk, policy risk, construction risk, operational risk and technology risk. Early engagement with all stakeholders – investors, EPC contractors, insurers and off‑takers – is, he argued, essential to build confidence.
Sponsor strength, technology choice and regulation
From a developer’s perspective, Alfonso García of Repsol stressed that overall project risk hinges on three pillars: the sponsor’s financial strength and operating track record, the maturity and flexibility of the chosen technology, and the regulatory environment. In Europe, he described the policy framework as both “more material” and “more complex”, driven by multiple overlapping mandates. He underlined the importance of policy‑agnostic designs and product flexibility, allowing plants to switch output – for example, between SAF and renewable diesel – when market conditions shift.
Finance and insurance: putting risks on the right balance sheet
Urbano Pérez of Santander highlighted that most SAF plants to date have *not* been project‑financed, and that moving to true non‑recourse finance dramatically raises the bar for risk assessment. Lenders, he said, are “buying into the predictability of cash flows”, which in turn depends on robust off‑take agreements, secure and affordable feedstock, proven technology performance and disciplined construction.
Katie Lennon of AXA described SAF as a “relatively immature” industry that is unusually open about risk. She urged developers to bring insurers in “at the pre‑conception stage” so that technical risk consultants can help engineer out problems before construction. Insurance, she added, can absorb technology performance, credit, political and even weather risks – so long as the “right risk sits on the right balance sheet”.
Airlines’ long‑term role
Representing demand, Jonathan Counsell of IAG said SAF is “absolutely critical” to the group’s net‑zero plans, with up to 70% of its fuel potentially coming from SAF by 2050. IAG has already signed 10‑ to 14‑year off‑take agreements with power‑to‑liquid producers, but only after extensive due diligence on technology, pricing and policy exposure. Counsell backed SAF mandates in the EU and UK, but warned that sub‑targets – particularly for emerging e‑fuel technologies – must be realistic to avoid large‑scale buy‑outs that would signal “policy failure”.
Across the panel, one message was consistent: only early, coordinated engagement between developers, airlines, financiers, insurers, technology providers and policymakers will unlock the scale of investment needed to take SAF from niche to norm.
Experts urge faster investment to scale SAF
