Renewables target at risk: IRENA

The Renewable Energy Statistics 2024, released by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), highlight a critical challenge: While renewables are the fastest-growing power source, the world faces a potential shortfall in meeting the tripling renewables target pledged at COP28

To stay on track, the world will now need to increase renewables capacity by at least 16.4% annually through 2030.

The unprecedented 14% increase in renewables capacity during 2023 has established a compound annual growth rate of 10% from 2017 to 2023. Coupled with the declining additions of non-renewable capacity over the years, this trend suggests that renewable energy is on course to surpass fossil fuels in global installed power capacity.

However, if last year’s 14% growth rate continues, IRENA's target of reaching 11.2 Terawatts (TW) by 2030 under its 1.5°C Scenario will fall short by 1.5 TW, missing the target by 13.5%. Moreover, if the world maintains the historical annual growth rate of 10%, it will only achieve 7.5 TW of renewables capacity by 2030, falling short of the target by nearly one-third.

IRENA director-general Francesco La Camera emphasised, “Renewable energy has been increasingly outperforming fossil fuels, but it is not the time to be complacent. Renewables must grow at higher speed and scale. Our new report sheds light on the direction of travel; if we continue with the current growth rate, we will only face failure in reaching the tripling renewables target agreed in the UAE Consensus at COP28, consequently risking the goals of the Paris Agreement and 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.”

“Consolidated global figures conceal ongoing patterns of concentration in geography. These patterns threaten to exacerbate the decarbonisation divide and pose a significant barrier to achieving the tripling target,” he added.

COP28 president Dr Sultan Al Jaber stated, “That means increasing collaboration between governments, the private sector, multilateral organisations, and civil society. Governments need to set explicit renewable energy targets, look at actions like accelerating permitting and expanding grid connections, and implement smart policies that push industries to step up and incentivise the private sector to invest. Additionally, this moment provides a significant opportunity to add strong national energy targets in NDCs to support the global goal of keeping the 1.5°C target within reach. Above all, we must change the narrative that climate investment is a burden to it being an unprecedented opportunity for shared socio-economic development.”

Regarding power generation, the latest data for 2022 confirmed regional disparities in renewables deployment. Asia remains the global leader in renewable power generation with 3,749 Terawatt hours (TWh), followed for the first time by North America (1,493 TWh). South America saw a notable increase in renewable power generation by nearly 12% to 940 TWh, attributed to hydropower recovery and increased solar energy contribution.

Africa experienced a modest growth of 3.5%, reaching 205 TWh in renewable power generation for 2022, despite its substantial potential and urgent need for sustainable growth. Recognising this need, IRENA is advancing the Accelerated Partnership for Renewables in Africa (APRA) initiative and preparing an investment forum focused on APRA member countries later this year.