MENA solar wind power transition analysis

The report Rise of Renewables in the Gulf Region, unveiled at the World Future Energy Summit, forecasts a dramatic expansion of variable renewable energy across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), projecting capacity to grow roughly tenfold by 2040 and continue rising through 2060.

The study emphasises that this growth will occur even as the region maintains its position as a major oil and gas producer.

According to the analysis, renewable energy is set to become a central component of MENA’s electricity system. By 2060, electricity is expected to represent around 35% of the region’s total energy demand, with most of it sourced from renewables. Solar and wind are projected to account for roughly 85% of electricity generation, with solar contributing about 45% and wind approximately 40%.

“The rapid rise of renewables in the Gulf, and MENA more broadly, is not replacing hydrocarbons overnight, but it is reshaping the power system,” said Ditlev Engel, Energy Systems CEO at DNV. “GCC countries are building some of the world’s largest solar and storage projects while still supplying global oil and gas markets. This development is driven mainly by economics. Renewables now provide low-cost electricity, and clean power is becoming necessary for competitive industry and future hydrogen production.”

DNV notes that this shift is being driven by both growing renewable supply and increasing electricity demand. Across the region, large-scale projects—including mega solar farms, hybrid solar-and-storage plants, and wind installations—are under development. Demand is rising due to data centres, electric transport, and green hydrogen initiatives, while traditional industries are moving toward low-carbon electricity in response to policy measures such as the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism.

The report identifies 2040 as a turning point when renewable generation growth is expected to outpace total electricity demand, boosting the share of clean energy in the regional mix.

Solar energy remains dominant, with installed capacity projected to rise from 76GW in 2024 to 340GW by 2029, supplying nearly one-fifth of electricity by decade’s end. Battery storage will increasingly complement solar projects, ensuring stable power delivery. Wind capacity, currently less developed, is forecast to triple each decade until 2060, complementing solar by providing electricity during nighttime and seasonal variations. Overall, combined solar and wind generation is expected to expand fourteenfold by 2040, alongside a tenfold increase in installed capacity.

“The Gulf is moving from discussion to deployment,” said Jan Zschommler, market area manager for Middle East & Africa, Energy Systems at DNV. “Utility-scale solar, wind, and storage projects are now being built at a pace that changes the regional power mix. Our modelling shows that renewables growth will exceed demand growth after 2040. That is when the transition in the region’s power mix starts to accelerate.”

The report also highlights energy storage and grid flexibility as essential enablers, with storage capacity forecast to rise from 36GWh today to nearly 9,500GWh by 2060, supported by stronger regional interconnections. DNV’s 2025 Energy Industry Insights survey indicates strong optimism among Middle East energy executives, who point to renewables expansion and infrastructure investment as key growth drivers.

Masdar PPA signing ceremony (Image source: Masdar)

Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company PJSC – Masdar has signed a power purchase agreement (PPA) for the 150MW Quipungo solar photovoltaic (PV) project in Angola

It marks the clean energy group’s debut PPA in the West African country.

The Quipungo project represents the first contracted site under Project Royal Sable, a planned 500MW renewable energy programme across three sites that will strengthen Angola’s southern power grid and support the country’s sustainable development objectives.

The agreement was signed with the state-owned offtaker Rede Nacional de Transporte de Electricidade (RNT-EP).

The PPA secures long-term electricity offtake from the 150MW Quipungo site, located in Huila Province in southern Angola.

By establishing the first commercial anchor project under Project Royal Sable, the agreement also provides a foundation for the phased development of the wider 500MW portfolio, which once completed is expected to create more than 2,000 jobs, deliver clean electricity to around 300,000 homes, and enhance power generation capacity in Angola’s southern grid.

Project Royal Sable reflects Masdar’s commitment to developing large-scale, bankable renewable energy infrastructure in emerging markets, supporting national energy strategies while expanding access to reliable, affordable clean power, according to its <strong>CEO Mohamed Jameel Al Ramahi</strong>.

“Africa is the world's fastest-growing continent and that growth will depend on affordable, secure energy,” he said.

“As a pioneer of renewables in Africa, Masdar is committed to developing clean energy across the region.”

He added that signing a first PPA in Angola represents an important milestone on its journey.

“The Quipungo PPA demonstrates how long-term partnerships and structured offtake arrangements can accelerate the deployment of utility scale renewables that support national clean energy ambitions, economic development, and job creation providing reliable, affordable clean power to local communities.”

Masdar is now the largest operator of renewables on the continent through its joint venture, Infinity Power, which currently operates 1.3 GW of solar and onshore wind power projects in South Africa, Egypt, and Senegal.

It also has a 13.8 GW project pipeline, including battery storage and green hydrogen facilities, in various stages of development.

The addition of Project Royal Sable will contribute to Masdar’s target of 100 GW portfolio capacity by 2030.

Also present at the signing ceremony was <strong>Francesco LaCamera, director general of the International Renewable Energy Agency (Irena)</strong>.

“The Quipungo solar PV project will contribute to strengthening Angola’s power system and expanding access to clean, reliable electricity, improving thousands of lives and inspiring greater investor confidence in Africa’s energy transition,”said LaCamera.

HE Dr. Al Jaber giving the opening address at Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week (ADSW). (Image source: MASDAR)

At the opening of Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week (ADSW) 2026, HE Dr. Sultan Al Jaber, UAE Minister of Industry and Advanced Technology and Masdar chairman, hailed a new era of human progress powered by computational power and digital capability, all underpinned by energy

“Artificial intelligence is rewiring every industry, reshaping every sector and resetting expectations for global growth,” HE Dr Al Jaber said. “While the world is changing around us, one constant remains. And that is energy. Every algorithm, every data centre, every breakthrough in advanced technology needs power to drive it. Simply put, there is no artificial intelligence without actual energy.”

“Meeting all this demand responsibly, reliably and affordably means coming to terms with reality,” HE Dr Al Jaber said. “Over 70% of this energy will still come from hydrocarbons.” This should be seen not as a constraint, he told the assembled audience, but rather as a catalyst. “Sustainable progress is not about slowing down growth, it is about designing a better engine.”

The UAE has structured its economy to meet this new reality, HE Dr Al Jaber said, stressing “the world still needs molecules to make electrons. That is why we have always invested in both and fused them into a single integrated system: from the carbon-efficient molecules of ADNOC to the clean gigawatts of Masdar; from the largest solar projects ever built, to the first solar plants that work around the clock; from nuclear energy to custom-tailored wind turbines that work at low speed.”

The UAE also applies technology “system-wide,” HE Dr Al Jaber said. “AI is no longer a tool we add at the margins; it has become the operating system of our industrial strategy. We are embedding AI across our energy and industrial base to optimise every barrel, every megawatt, every production line.”

HE Dr. Al Jaber highlighted the key role played by Masdar in developing renewable energy projects globally and driving renewable energy costs down, revealing that it is now more than two thirds of the way to its target of 100 gigawatts (GW) portfolio capacity. Through long-term partnerships, innovation, and US$45bn in investment, Masdar has contributed to reducing costs, increasing efficiency, and overcoming structural challenges such as intermittency, helping make renewables the cheapest and fastest way to deploy new electricity capacity globally.

HE Dr Al Jaber ended by highlighting the attractions of the UAE as a business destination.

“Bring your ambition, your ideas, your capital and your technology, and put them to work where progress is powered, opportunity is operationalised and partnerships are permanent. The future of sustainable human progress is waiting, and its address is Abu Dhabi.”

ADSW 2026 opened on 13 January under the theme “The Nexus of Next: All Systems Go,” convening global leaders to accelerate collaboration across interconnected systems including energy, finance, food, water, and nature. Held under the patronage of His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, President of the United Arab Emirates, ADSW 2026 is hosted by Masdar.

The opening ceremony gathered Heads of State, Ministers, senior government officials, business leaders, investors, and innovators, celebrating landmark achievements to date while mobilising momentum and investment for the critical decade ahead.

While there is no single solution that fits all contexts, systemic innovation can reshape the future of global energy systems, according to a new report from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA).

Launched during a Ministerial Dialogue on the role of artificial intelligence at IRENA’s Assembly, the report, Innovation landscape for sustainable development powered by renewables, emphasises that meaningful transformation occurs when technological advances are integrated with innovation in policy, regulation, market design, system operation and business models. Rather than focusing on technology alone, the report highlights the importance of coordinated, system-wide change.

The study identifies 40 innovations spanning artificial intelligence and digital applications, smarter grid planning, off-grid solutions and emerging business models. It concludes that adopting a systemic and integrated approach can strengthen power system resilience, expand energy access, maintain affordability and unlock the full potential of the energy transition. The report is the third in IRENA’s Innovation Landscape series, which examines emerging solutions to maximise the impact of renewables across global energy systems and economies.

“The question isn't whether we can transform our energy system”, said Francesco La Camera, Director-General of IRENA, “it’s whether we will seize the moment to do it in a holistic way, benefitting all. The energy transition is not only about availability of technology, but also about solutions which deliver social justice. With Today’s report we call for a systemic innovation approach and guide policymakers with a toolkit to formulate tailored solutions.”

IRENA notes that renewable technologies are now the lowest-cost source of electricity in most regions. When combined with decentralised innovation, this cost advantage places universal electricity access and more resilient power systems within reach, particularly for emerging markets and developing economies pursuing a just transition and economic growth.

The report stresses that successful implementation depends on system-specific strategies, taking into account national grid conditions, economic structures, resource availability and social and cultural factors. Many of the highlighted innovations are already being piloted worldwide. Examples include community-owned renewable projects in Tanzania, Kenya, Colombia and Malaysia; cross-border power sharing through West African regional power pools; dynamic line rating in Malaysia to increase transmission capacity; battery swapping for electric mobility in Uganda and Rwanda; and pay-as-you-go models delivering affordable power to hundreds of thousands of people in Sierra Leone and Liberia.

To support policymakers, the 40 innovations are grouped into four strategic toolkits addressing grid modernisation, decentralised solutions, inclusive local development and energy access. IRENA concludes that coordinated action across international institutions, governments and communities is essential to translate these innovations into sustainable, context-specific outcomes.